Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.573668 2.059389 2.707502 3.655595 5.042000e+00 7.053026 1.030395e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.026731 1.517285 2.283167 3.628863 6.080613e+00 10.693892 2.101358e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.786597 1.294225 2.208919 4.129645 8.536237e+00 19.722389 5.801157e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.611065 1.102733 2.108776 4.607451 1.185464e+01 37.658726 1.936459e+02
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.492537 0.966861 2.060273 5.268616 1.724421e+01 81.601684 1.018469e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.399984 0.845340 1.988515 5.920986 2.499215e+01 193.165093 1.164335e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.308744 0.688264 1.743082 5.848216 3.065295e+01 386.802354 3.889706e+05
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.237527 0.551921 1.482510 5.491021 3.488155e+01 731.761149 1.260933e+17
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.197029 0.480081 1.381691 5.773100 4.718794e+01 2222.808904 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.173425 0.445697 1.389052 6.713201 7.666501e+01 15666.693559 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.156770 0.425211 1.439874 8.164039 1.407857e+02 741164.446666 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.136701 0.385782 1.390898 8.950556 2.228721e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.113532 0.329467 1.242510 8.785065 2.957171e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.093744 0.277782 1.083948 8.247524 3.580831e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083251 0.255689 1.058957 9.197928 6.656156e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.073930 0.234387 1.024426 10.079543 1.272889e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.066795 0.218868 1.012698 11.433268 2.990735e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060345 0.203633 0.992296 12.761972 7.770987e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052425 0.179362 0.895794 12.279432 1.220464e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045141 0.155595 0.787536 11.181476 1.496835e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040726 0.143057 0.749328 11.663632 3.843421e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038172 0.137974 0.761695 13.721268 3.386184e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036365 0.135706 0.795318 17.055187 8.676878e+07 NaN NaN